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Research Assistants

Soccer In-Play Prediction

Models based on birth-death processes with Poisson arrivals is the standard approach for in-play prediction of soccer. However, such models are typically not well aligned with goal expectancy – which they tend to systematically under-predict.

This project will test various extensions of in-play prediction of soccer with the objective of making unified predictions of outcomes (1X2) and the joint distribution of goals. Among the approaches are:

  • Reflect uncertainty (error distribution) in probability estimates, and corresponding joint distribution of the two goal arrival rates.
  • Bayesian models.
  • Adjustments for time and goal difference.

Key tasks will be collecting data and coding and running analysis

Requisite Skills and Qualifications

  • Strong methodological background (data analysis and quantitative modeling).
  • Strong R and Python skills.
  • Experience with databases and SQL.