Taking the Second Moment into Account: Adaptation to Monsoon Onset Variability in Bangladesh

This project studies how farms in Bangladesh adapt not just to changes in average monsoon timing, but to monsoon onset variability—the “second moment” risk that the rains arrive unusually early or late. When onset becomes more uncertain, it can disrupt planting calendars, raise the likelihood of crop failure, and change the value of different livelihood strategies. The core idea is that two places (or two years) with the same mean onset date can still face very different economic conditions if one has much higher variability.

Using high-resolution measures of monsoon onset timing and its dispersion, the project quantifies how decadal shifts in monsoon onset variability affect agricultural decisions (e.g., crop choice, planting timing, input use) and longer-run adjustments such as shifts into nonfarm activities, and migration.