Models based on birth-death processes with Poisson arrivals is the standard approach for in-play prediction of soccer. However, such models are typically not well aligned with goal expectancy – which they tend to systematically under-predict.
This project will test various extensions of in-play prediction of soccer with the objective of making unified predictions of outcomes (1X2) and the joint distribution of goals. Among the approaches are:
- Reflect uncertainty (error distribution) in probability estimates, and corresponding joint distribution of the two goal arrival rates.
- Bayesian models.
- Adjustments for time and goal difference.
Key tasks will be collecting data and coding and running analysis
Requisite Skills and Qualifications:
- Strong methodological background (data analysis and quantitative modeling).
- Strong R and Python skills.
- Experience with databases and SQL.