Kohei Yata Publications

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) attempts to predict the performance of counterfactual policies using log data from a different policy. We extend its applicability by developing an OPE method for a class of both full support and deficient support logging policies in contextual-bandit settings. This class includes deterministic bandit (such as Upper Confidence Bound) as well as deterministic decision-making based on supervised and unsupervised learning. We prove that our method's prediction converges in probability to the true performance of a counterfactual policy as the sample size increases. We validate our method with experiments on partly and entirely deterministic logging policies. Finally, we apply it to evaluate coupon targeting policies by a major online platform and show how to improve the existing policy.

Efficient methods to evaluate new algorithms are critical for improving interactive bandit and reinforcement learning systems such as recommendation systems. A/B tests are reliable, but are time- and money-consuming, and entail a risk of failure. In this paper, we develop an alternative method, which predicts the performance of algorithms given historical data that may have been generated by a different algorithm. Our estimator has the property that its prediction converges in probability to the true performance of a counterfactual algorithm at a rate of, as the sample size N increases. We also show a correct way to estimate the variance of our prediction, thus allowing the analyst to quantify the uncertainty in the prediction. These properties hold even when the analyst does not know which among a large number of potentially important state variables are actually important. We validate our method by a simulation experiment about reinforcement learning. We finally apply it to improve advertisement design by a major advertisement company. We find that our method produces smaller mean squared errors than state-of-the-art methods.

What is the most statistically efficient way to do off-policy optimization with batch data from bandit feedback? For log data generated by contextual bandit algorithms, we consider offline estimators for the expected reward from a counterfactual policy. Our estimators are shown to have lowest variance in a wide class of estimators, achieving variance reduction relative to standard estimators. We then apply our estimators to improve advertisement design by a major advertisement company. Consistent with the theoretical result, our estimators allow us to improve on the existing bandit algorithm with more statistical confidence compared to a state-of-theart benchmark.