Tobin Undergraduate Research Assistantships

1.    “Innovation and Production in the Global Economy”

Professor Costas Arkolakis

The RA will be asked to solve a problem of endogenous location and production of multinational firms in different markets. In particular, the task involves the development of a non-linear optimization routine. This routine will maximize a nonlinear function (profit of the firm) subject to different sets of possible constraints (constraints faced in different markets). The routine then needs to be ultimately designed to compute the maximum value attained under each possible set of constraints and compare these values to find the global firm optimum. The RA will be asked to help both in the design of the routine and the programming of an algorithm that can compute the solution. Prior knowledge of constraint optimization (linear or non-linear) or relevant techniques from computational physics is helpful. Good programming knowledge in matlab is essential.

2.     “Revisiting Chinatown”

Professor José Antonio Espín Sánchez

In the 1974 motion picture Chinatown the private investigator J. J. “Jake” Gites (Jack Nicholson) is involved in a conspiracy that involved corruption, deceit and “family secrets.” The goal of the conspirators consisted on buying the lands of unsuspected farmers in the Owens Valley (some 400 miles north of Los Angeles) and then building an aqueduct to bring the water to the city, where it would be worth a fortune. Although, this description is fictional and far from really, there is much controversy on the way the city of L.A. purchase the water and land rights in the Owens Valley.

The goal of the project is to gather individual unpublished detailed data of all the purchases of land and water rights (1905-1934). With the individual data we will be able to assess whether the prices paid were “fair.” We will also assess why some farmers and not others were able to organize in sellers’ pools. Finally we will test whether the city of L.A. established a purchasing patter of “checkers,” thereby isolating farmers’ properties in order to buy them later at a lower price.

The goal for the RA will be to help processing the data from the farmer’s plots. She will use GIS software to create maps of the plots and to transform that information into econometric analysis. Knowledge of GIS is advice, but it is not a prerequisite.

3.     “Re-thinking Models of Insurance Valuation for the Young and Privately Insured”

Professor Amanda Kowalski

Even though health conditions evolve over many years, private health insurance plans generally renew annually, potentially leaving some risks uninsured. In a given year, approximately 95% of medical expenditures are for the highest-spending 25% of individuals.  If these individuals have high expenditures across several years, then they will value public health insurance as a safety net to catch them should they lose their private coverage. In my working paper on this subject (http://www.econ.yale.edu/~ak669/longitudinal.latest.draft.pdf), I consider the value of public health insurance as a safety net for the young and privately insured, taking into account how individual medical expenditures evolve over time.  I demonstrate that methods of valuing health insurance that ignore the correlation of health expenditures over time fail to capture a large portion of the valuation of health insurance. I am currently undertaking a revision of this paper and would like a research assistant to help me implement theoretical and empirical changes to the methodology and to help with revising the text of the paper itself.

Candidates should have a strong familiarity with Stata, the ability to work with equations and models, and persuasive writing skills. This project requires the ability to understand, modify, and re-design very technical code in Stata. It also requires the ability to grasp theoretical concepts from microeconomics and then the ability to communicate them clearly, concisely, and persuasively.

In a first step, the work of the RA will involve collecting and organizing the data as well as constructing descriptive statistics and reporting them in tables and graphs. In a next step, some basic econometric analysis should be performed. The RA should have an interest in data work, familiarity with STATA and basic econometrics, as well as an interest in learning more independently.

4.    “Matching of Entrepreneurs and Venture Capitalists”

Professor Ilse Lindenlaub

This is a new project aimed at understanding the matching between entrepreneurs/start-ups and venture capitalists. In particular, we want to understand “who matches with whom” in this market, which characteristics of entrepreneurs and venture capitalists matter most in the matching process and what are the trade-offs that agents face when searching for a match. We also want to analyze how matching patterns vary over the business cycle.

In a first step, the work of the RA will involve collecting and organizing the data as well as constructing descriptive statistics and reporting them in tables and graphs. In a next step, some basic econometric analysis should be performed. The RA should have an interest in data work, familiarity with STATA and basic econometrics, as well as an interest in learning more independently.

5.    “Urbanization, Growth and Structural Change”

Professor Michael Peters

Two important regularities of the growth process are: (1) Urbanization (i.e. a sustained movement from the countryside to cities) and (2) Structural change (i.e. a decline in the importance of agriculture and a rise in manufacturing and service employment). Wile these two aspects of economic development are clearly related, the underlying mechanisms are less understood.

One set of theories highlights demand side factors: as the economy develops and people get richer they spend relatively less of their income on food and more on services and goods. If services and goods are predominantly produced in cities, urbanization is a corollary of the growth process induced by changed in spending patterns. Another set of theories highlights supply side factors: if e.g. manufacturing firms benefit more from technological advances and innovation takes place in dense areas like cities, urbanization is a necessary ingredient for growth and causes structural transformation.

In this project, which is joint work with Fabian Eckert, who is a Phd Student at the Economics Department, we want to use detailed geographic data on employment patterns, land prices and worker mobility from Germany to distinguish these forces. Knowing the mechanism why urbanization and economic development are closely linked, is important to evaluate place-based policies (like city planning or moving restrictions), which are present in many developing countries today like China and India.

This is an empirical project using geographic data. Hence, it would be very helpful if applicants had experience in GIS using historical maps or were eager to learn these skills on the job. Furthermore, some experience in applied econometrics and working knowledge of STATA would be a plus.

6.    “Understanding the Determinants of Foreign Aid”

Professor Nancy Qian

Foreign aid is the most important development policy tool and the United States is the largest aid donor. At the same time, there is little evidence on the benefits of foreign aid for poor recipient countries. One reason may be that aid is simply not targeted to improve outcomes in poor countries, and is instead spent to benefit the citizens of donor countries. This project examines the latter hypothesis with U.S. Aid data. Research assistance is required for data construction, cleaning and simple analysis. Knowledge in Python and Stata are useful.

7.   “Explaining Declines in Air Pollution from US Manufacturing”

Professor Joseph Shapiro

Between 1990 and 2008, emissions of the most common air pollutants from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent, even as U.S. manufacturing output grew substantially. Most of this reduction stems from decreases in the amount of pollution emitted per unit of output rather than changes in the quantities or types of products produced. Several competing theories explain why pollution per unit of output has been falling in U.S. manufacturing. I am seeking help exploring the historical evolution of a few manufacturing industries for evidence on how changes in production technologies have contributed to declines in emissions intensity. This involves compiling and analyzing industry-specific information. 

No previous knowledge of specific software or programming languages is required.

8.   “Analyzing Differences between US and Russia Attitudes Towards Markets and Democracy”

Professor Robert Shiller

In 1991, 25 years ago and at the time of the fall of the Soviet Union, I wrote a paper with Maxim Boycko of Russia and Vladimir Korobov of Ukraine, comparing attitudes towards free markets between Moscow and New York. The results can be seen here: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3453

We then did identical telephone surveys in the two cities, and compared the results. We wish now to do a followup of that paper, 25 years later, to see if Russian and American attitudes have changed, and also to append some questions about attitudes towards democracy. I need a research assistant to scour the literature about changing attitudes in these two countries, so that we can be cognizant of others’ observations, to attend to details of the survey implementation, and perhaps other things. We must have this paper done by early December, as we are slated to present it at the American Economic Association meetings January 4, 2016. I will be in Turkey until September 2, 2015.

9.   “Mapping Global Ties”

Professor Tsyvinski

I am looking for an RA with a strong background in network analysis and economics. RAs duties will include analyzing a new dataset of global issues and tying the analysis with economic data. The dataset covers qualitative knowledge on countries, industries and global issues. The project seeks to map these issues using the tools of network analysis, detect the most salient issues, and the connections among them. The overarching goal is to use the tools of connecting both the soft information on global issues and the quantitative insight from the economics data to study the changing nature of global ties.

1.     “Women’s Life Cycle Productivity in Bangladeshi Villages”
       Professor T. Paul Schultz

The Tobin Research Assistant would need to know how to manage large data files with STATA software and apply regression methods to account for labor and demographic behavioral differences.  I have the basic data files and a copy of STATA 13 for their use. The objective will be to understand the mechanisms by which women increase their earnings, who are provided access to modern, more reliable birth control methods and improved child health inputs on a regular continuing basis. A central question is whether the reduced fertility attributable to the program intervention impacts the woman’s health, body mass index, and thus her labor productivity, or whether the reduction in the morbidity of the woman’s children reduces the demands on her time for child care, allowing her to dedicate more time to predictable work schedules and thereby acquire more vocational experience which is expected to raise her wage. However, increases in her wages are expected to exert both a price (of time) and an offsetting income effect on her desire to work more in the paid labor force for those who were previously working for wages. To quantify this income effect it will be necessary to measure the woman’s or household’s wealth, that may be approximated by the ownership and value of land in these poor agricultural villages. Individual, household, and village data from the NIH 1997 Matlab Socioeconomic Household Survey may then be linked to the Census data from 1974 and perhaps to the Census of 1986. I estimate that the student working about 10 hours per week starting about September 2014 until about December 2014 might complete the first stage of the work, and student then could apply to continue their own work on questions of their design, that could evolve into the student’s research project for their senior essay.

2.  ” Long-Run Consequences of the Clean Water Act”
       Professor Joseph Shapiro

Since the U.S. passed the Clean Water Act in 1972, public and private sources together have spent roughly a trillion dollars to decrease water pollution. Almost half of stream and river miles, however, still have water quality so poor that they violate local standards. This research will use new data to assess whether U.S. water quality has improved since the Clean Water Act and will quantify the contributions of the Act to any observed improvements. Research assistance is sought for several tasks: compiling water quality data; concording water pollution codes across datasets; cleaning and merging digitized historic data in Stata; and other tasks that may arise.

3.  “Understanding the Impact of the Inception of Medicaid”
       Professor Amanda Kowalski

Medicaid, the United States health insurance program for the poor, was established in 1965.  Because of data limitations involved in following up on individuals enrolled in the program almost 50 years later, very little is known about the long term impact of Medicaid on health and labor market outcomes. The Medicaid program is administered by the states, which set their own eligibility guidelines and change them over time. As part of an ongoing project on the long term impact of Medicaid, I would like a research assistant to help me to develop a calculator for Medicaid eligibility that varies across states and time. The first part of this project will involve library research to find Medicaid eligibility thresholds by state in the early years of the program. This portion of the project is largely complete, but additional library research could be necessary. The second part will involve standardizing information from library research and existing calculators to develop a complete calculator for all states and program years in Stata. Some of this portion the project is already complete, but only for later program years, so the candidate will focus on eligibility around inception. The third part will involve regression analysis using the American Community Survey.

Candidates should have a strong familiarity with Stata and an interest in learning more independently. The research assistant will sit in a shared office in the ISPS building at Yale with full-time research assistants working on other health economics projects. The research assistant will also have the opportunity to learn about and potentially participate in those projects, depending on progress on the main project.

The research assistant will be responsible for exploring and analyzing the health insurance variables within New York SPARCS hospital discharge data and reporting results using tables and graphs. Preliminary results will determine next steps. Candidates should have a basic understanding of Stata and an interest in learning more independently.

4.  “The Economy of People’s Republic of China from 1953”
       Professor Aleh Tsyvinski

Requirement: fluency in Chinese (at the native level). The project studies structural transformation of the Chinese economy from 1953 to present. Main responsibility of the RA will be constructing various macroeconomic datasets, mostly for the pre-reform (pre-1978 period). Extensive library work with primary source Chinese statistical data both at the national and the provincial level is expected.
 

5.  “Economic and demographic change in the long run”
       Professor Timothy Guinnane

This project studies the relationship between population and the economy over the very long run (approximately 1600-1914) in a region of southwestern Germany.  Economists today believe that demographic behavior is closely-connected to education and other issues that potentially affect economic growth. This region of Germany has historical records that make it possible to compile and use especially rich quantitative sources.

Most of the relevant data has already been entered into spreadsheets. The student assistant will help to organize the data and perform preliminary graphical and econometric analysis.

Facility with Excel is required. Some knowledge of Stata is also useful. A student who reads German will be able to help with a broader variety of tasks, but knowledge of the language is not necessary.

6.  “The Effect of Electricity Supply on Industrialization”
       Professor Nicholas Ryan

Firms in developing countries are often numerous, small and unproductive, which may be in part due to poor infrastructure limiting firm technology and size. This project will aim to measure how a major expansion of electricity supply in a large Indian state affected industrialization, mainly on the dimensions of firm entry, investment and employment in manufacturing. The Research Assistant will organize and clean a new database on manufacturing firms from industrial registration records, analyze trends in firm entry and size, and merge this database at a fine geographic scale with data on a recent expansion of the electricity grid, to assess whether this grid expansion contributed to industrialization. The RA should have a strong interest in working with data and basic competence with Stata. Experience with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and an interest in energy issues are helpful. Basic familiarity with Stata and interest in environment/energy issues are useful though not required.

7.  “Cheap Industrial Workers and the Big Push: Evidence from Germany’s Post-war Population Transfer”
       Professor Michael Peters

In this project I want to study the long-run consequences of labor migration on local labor markets. To do so, I exploit a natural experiment, which arguably generates exogenous variation in population mobility. After the Second World War, the German population of the Eastern Territories (what is now Poland and parts of Russia, Hungary and the Czech Republic) was expelled and transferred to Western Germany. Within the 18 months from late 1946 to early 1948, roughly 8 million people were transferred. At the time, this amounted to 20% of the German post-war population. The allocation within Germany was decided upon by the Military Governments of the US (in their zone in Southern Germany) and the UK (in their zone in Northern German). There is ample cross-sectional variation of the initial allocation of expellees across counties within Germany and both institutional and geographical features make it possible to construct instruments for the initial allocation. To study the long-run consequences of these labor supply shocks on the respective local labor markets, I want to use microdata from both the German Population Census and the Manufacturing Census, which can be linked to the respective counties. The preliminary findings are as follows:

1. On impact, i.e., in the late 1940s, there is massive reallocation of factors, in that the vast majority of refugees start working as unskilled workers in the manufacturing industries.

2. Counties that received a large share of refugees in 1946 have higher employment shares in manufacturing in 1975 and are intensive in jobs, which use unskilled-bias technologies.

3. Counties that received a large share of refugees in 1946 have higher average wages in 1975. These preliminary findings are qualitatively consistent with “big-push-type”-growth models, where market-size effects induce the emergence of new production techniques, which in turn increase aggregate TFP, wages and welfare.

Required Skills
As this project is mostly empirical and uses microdata, it would be helpful if a potential research assistant had some experience in applied econometric analysis and working knowledge of STATA. Furthermore, the project will require some GIS work using historical maps to exploit the regional variation in the data. While previous experience with GIS software would be a plus, I believe these skills could also be acquired on the job. Finally, knowledge of German
would be extremely helpful as the primary data sources are in German.